L’economia si deteriora a un tasso più veloce di quanto stimato da Capital One tre mesi fa.
Si aspettano un aumento al 10% del charge off rate nei prossimi mesi sulle carte di credito.
Si aspettano un continuo aumento della disoccupazione fino al 10%
Si aspettano una continua discesa dei prezzi delle case.
Economic deterioration continued at a rapid pace during the first quarter driving increasing delinquency and charge off rates across most of our lending businesses. U.S. card charge off rate increased to 8.4% for the first quarter, above the 8.1% charge off rate expectation we articulated a quarter ago.
Recoveries on already charged off debt were lower than expected. We also observed an acceleration of later stage delinquency balances slowing to charge off in the quarter. For context recall that when we articulated our expectations last January the unemployment rate was 7.2% and we assumed it would increase to about 8.7% by the ends of 2009. The unemployment rate has already deteriorated to 8.5% and is expected to move beyond 8.7% well before year end.
Credit Loss outlook
We expect further increases in U.S. card charge off rate through 2009 as the economy continues to weaken. It is likely that will our U.S. card charge off rate will increase at a faster pace than the broader economy . We expect monthly U.S. card charge off rates to cross 10% in the next couple of months.
Unemployment and home prices have been and continue to be the economic variables with the greatest impact on our credit results. We now expect unemployment rate to increase to around 9.6% by the ends of 2009. Our prior assumption for home prices was for the Case Shiller 20 city index to fall by around 37% peak to trough. We now expect a modestly worse peak to trough decline of around 39%. …
IL 10% DI CHARGE OFF E’ UN TASSO MOLTO, MOLTO ALTO. SAREBBE INTERESSANTE SAPERE COS ALA FED STIMA E QUALE NUMERO E’ STATO USATO PER CALCOLARE GLI STRESS TEST DELLE BANCHE (SAPENDO CHE ALTRI PARAMETRI USATI SONO GIA’ SUPERATI DALLA CRISI (VEDI IL TASSO DI DISOCCUPAZIONE).
LO STRESS TEST NON E’ IMPORTANTE AI FINI DEI MERCATI FINANZIARI. SI E’ CAPITO CHE E’ COME OTTENERE UNA LAUREA DURANTE IL 1968….(COSI’ GLI ITALIANI ANCORA OGGI PAGANO IL CONTO …CON ARCHITETTI, INGEGNIERI, ECONOMISTI E MEDICI USCITI ALLORA SENZA LE NECESSARIE BASI….MINANDO LA SOLIDITA’ DI UNA NAZIONE E LA SUA CRESCITA FUTURA)
La politica lassiva del governo americano obamiano verso il sistema bancario è scandalosa e produrrà effetti negativi sul sistema economico per anni.